The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960 is a pivotal agreement between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank, that governs the distribution and management of the Indus River system’s waters. Recent developments, particularly India’s suspension of the treaty following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, have raised significant concerns about regional stability and water security.
Signed on September 19, 1960, in Karachi by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan, the IWT allocates control over the Indus River system’s waters between the two nations:
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- Eastern Rivers: Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej – allocated to India.
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- Western Rivers: Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab – allocated to Pakistan.
India is permitted limited use of the western rivers for non-consumptive purposes, such as hydroelectric power generation, under strict design and operational constraints.
The World Bank played a crucial role in facilitating the treaty and continues to serve as a neutral party in dispute resolution. Its responsibilities include appointing neutral experts or members of a Court of Arbitration when disagreements arise.
While the United Nations (UN) is not directly involved in the treaty’s implementation, it may be approached if either party perceives a threat to international peace resulting from treaty violations.
On April 23, 2025, following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, that resulted in the deaths of 26 tourists, India announced the suspension of the IWT. The attack was attributed to the militant group Kashmir Resistance, reportedly linked to Pakistan-based organizations.
In response, India downgraded diplomatic ties with Pakistan, closed key border crossings, and suspended visa exemptions. Pakistan, in turn, suspended the 1972 Simla Agreement, closed its airspace to Indian aircraft, and warned that any diversion of shared river waters would be considered an act of war.
Pakistan heavily relies on the Indus River system for agriculture, drinking water, and hydroelectric power. The suspension of the IWT raises concerns about water scarcity, especially during critical agricultural periods. Although India’s current infrastructure limits immediate alterations to water flows, the withholding of hydrological data and potential future projects could exacerbate tensions.
The IWT does not contain provisions for unilateral suspension or termination. According to Article XII of the treaty, any modification or termination requires mutual agreement.
Pakistan asserts that any unilateral revocation by India would constitute a breach of international law and could be interpreted as an act of war. Islamabad has indicated intentions to approach the International Court of Justice and the UN Security Council if India violates the treaty.
Potential Consequences of Treaty Cancellation
For Pakistan
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- Water Security: Threats to irrigation and drinking water supplies.
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- Agricultural Impact: Potential decline in crop yields affecting food security.
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- Economic Strain: Increased pressure on an already fragile economy.
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- Diplomatic Isolation: Challenges in garnering international support.
For India
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- International Repercussions: Potential criticism for violating a long-standing treaty.
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- Regional Stability: Risk of escalating tensions with a nuclear-armed neighbor.
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- Legal Challenges: Possible proceedings in international courts.
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- Environmental Concerns: Impacts on ecosystems due to altered river flows.
The Indus Waters Treaty has been a cornerstone of India-Pakistan relations, surviving multiple conflicts over the decades. Its recent suspension marks a significant shift, with potential ramifications for regional stability, water security, and international law. Both nations face critical decisions ahead, with the hope that dialogue and diplomacy will prevail to prevent further escalation.
